Life Cycle of a Revolution, Part 3
Last week, we covered the initial victory of a revolution and subsequent dissolving of the bonds of unity. Subscribers were able to read how I applied the lessons about these phases to a revolution in my own homebrew world.
As a reminder: this is not meant to be the only analysis of revolutionary history possible. Instead, it is an outline for worldbuilders, to give revolutionary stories in your world depth and plausibility. The inspiration and main source for this series is the fantastic Revolutions podcast by Mike Duncan, who is using the framework he built to tell a science fiction narrative, just as I'm encouraging you to do!
This week, we pick up where we left off. The revolution has been won, but the different aims of different factions within the triumphant revolution have been exposed.
Historical Cycle
Phase 6: War
Revolution means war, most of the time. There's already been a war of some sort, as the old regime was overthrown. But war will also begin on the heels of the revolution's victory, in a few usually-overlapping modes.
Mode 1: Civil War Between Revolutionary Factions. Last week, we established the so-called "entropy of victory," where the differing aims of the revolution leads to new factions being established. These different factions can then fight for dominance in the post-revolutionary order. Whose vision of the revolution is going to be the one that actually takes place? Even in the comparatively free-of-bloody-backstabbing American Revolution, Shays' Rebellion and the Whiskey Rebellion can be seen as a civil war between the western farmers and the eastern city-dwellers.
Mode 2: Restorationist Movements. The other main mode of civil war is war from the old regime. These are not always the same leader of the old regime, especially if the old leader is dead, but is an effort to reassert the system of the old regime. Campaigns to put Charles II on the throne or to reassert the Russian Empire under a new absolutist Tsar are both restorationist efforts. This mode often happens, but is not always strong enough to really pose a credible threat to the new order. Mode 1 is often far more dangerous, but not always.
Mode 3: Foreign War. The last, and often most dangerous threat, is foreign war. The old regime has been destabilized, and other countries want to profit off of their new weakness. Other times, this is a conservative neighbor seeking to help the restorationist movement and prevent radical ideas from spreading to their own realm, but this is actually less common than a neighbor simply seeking to profit off the weakness of the new regime. Equally or more often, foreign war is started by the revolutionaries, seeking to expand their power, spread revolutionary ideas, or consolidate their new regime by creating a common enemy for their society.
With all of these wars unfolding, usually simultaneously, the army swells in size. This makes it a prime opportunity for upward mobility within the army. Soldiers become political figures: Washington went from rich planter to the biggest name in America, and Napoleon went from a nobody Corsican to Emperor of France.
At the same time, resentment builds among the lower classes as forced conscription of soldiers and forced requisition of food and supplies to support the army both take their toll. Particularly if any of these wars takes a turn for the worse, people might start wondering why they are suffering so much under this new regime that was supposed to save them, and why they are losing when so much of the promise of revolution was an end to an incompetent ruler (see the Shock to the System in Part 1 of this series).
Phase 7: The Second Revolution
Despite all the multiple factions that emerge in the Entropy of Victory that we discussed last week, we can generally cluster them in two factions: radicals (who want to see more major changes to society) and moderates (who think that the revolution is complete and we should consolidate what we've won already). Often, the moderates are the victors of the initial revolution; the wealthy have the prestige and social capital to move into the new government. These are mostly the reluctant revolutionaries and the reformers.
This brings back that idea that was a contributing factor to the revolution in the first place: frustration. Radicals--both radical politicians and radical street fighters--want their voice in government heard, and are frustrated at the compromises that the new moderate rulers are making for the sake of order.
They provoke some sympathy from the new regime, who is usually unwilling to crush these radicals. After all, the revolution was fought to stop tyranny! In many cases, freedom of speech was specifically named by the moderates as a key part of their program. And so they allow the radicals to protest and publish criticism of the new order. Plus, the radicals--especially those street fighters--are often the very army that the moderates are using to fight their wars, keeping them in power against enemies foreign and domestic.
The radicals demand that progress happen, that the counter-revolution be destroyed without mercy. The moderates do not want to overturn the social order, but also know that they cannot crush the radicals or the counter-revolution will crush them. They're stuck between a rock and a hard place, as the radicals grow ever more frustrated. The frustrated radicals are making plans to overthrow the moderates. Unlike the spontaneous uprising that triggered the revolution, this coup usually is planned by a clique of radicals.
Many of these attempted coups--this second revolution--are defeated, though our best-known revolutions (France and Russia) see the radical wing succeed. The aftermath of this second revolution will define our next stage.
Phase 8: Reign of Terror / Bloody Week
Depending on the outcome of Phase 7, Duncan identifies two distinct results.
If the radical clique is successful in the second revolution, we have a Reign of Terror. The radicals, taking power, decide to purge the enemies of the revolution, seeing everyone in a counter-revolutionary conspiracy. Moderates and conservatives alike, allied with foreign powers, are trying to destroy the revolution whether directly (civil war) or indirectly (moderate incompetence in defending the revolution). Surrounded by enemies, they start chopping off heads. Because this radical wing is fairly narrow, this means that the "enemies" they perceive can be a sizable chunk of the population. Conservatives, restorationists, moderates, anyone deemed insufficiently enthusiastic about the radical regime, and anyone who disagrees that this was the end goal of the revolution are all targeted. This includes the first generation of revolutionaries, whose revolutionary credentials do not save them.
A reign of terror is designed to target perceived threats to the ongoing wars. If an officer was incompetent or a soldier slacked off, they were a threat to winning the war, which made them a counter-revolutionary traitor. Anyone who tried to profit off the war– hoarders, peasants refusing to give goods and services to the army for substandard pay– were a threat, which made them a counter-revolutionary traitor. Rivals who can claim some authority over the revolution, whether moderate or radical of a different flavor, might be a source of civil war, which makes them counter-revolutionary traitors. And if you defend the old ways, the church or any other institutions, you are threatening corruption of the society, which makes you a counter-revolutionary traitor.
A reign of terror is designed to create a new political center. Any aristocrats of the old, pre-revolutionary regime need to be destroyed, yes--but most of those are already exiled or dead. The main focus is on the moderate revolutionary wing and on destroying anyone who can plausibly challenge them from the more extreme. They've learned the lessons that allowed them to overthrow the moderates, and they don't want a third revolutionary wave to overthrow them either.
If the moderate regime is successful at beating back the radical attempt at overthrowing them, they retaliate with their own mode of top-down violence, which Duncan calls "Bloody Weeks" after the term used for the suppression of the Paris Commune. Like with a reign of terror, the regime uses violence to destroy any perceived enemies, but these enemies are the radicals who dared try to overthrow the system.
The principle motivation for a bloody week is the reassertion of order. Not just this radical challenge, but any potential future return to mob rule, needs to be set squarely in the "illegal" category. The ruling moderates need to be the only legitimate inheritors of the revolution, and so they try to sweep the radicals off the table once and for all.
A bloody week is far more targeted than a reign of terror. It is a strike against the radical wing of the revolution, but it does not share the same assault on all sides all at once of a reign of terror. It is usually shorter in time too, because of its more narrow scope. Because the rich are rarely more radical than the moderate rulers, this also means that it is the poor who tend to be the focus of a bloody week.
Phase 9: The New Boss
By the end of the bloody week or the reign of terror, people are weary of the revolutionary tumult. There has been war, mistrust and paranoia, and conscription. Farms and cities have been ruined by conflicts, and many with the funds to rebuild them have been killed or have fled into exile.
The best chance at upward mobility has been the army, and so a popular and successful officer has amassed a considerable following of loyalists. Proclaiming a return to order, they can unseat the unpopular radicals or moderates of the reign of terror or the bloody week. This leader does not come to power by promising order and being handed the keys to power, but rather by seizing power with their loyal army and then not being challenged. The revolutionary fervor of the people has been tapped out, and calls to resist the military takeover are left unanswered.
Almost all of the revolutions that Duncan covers in his podcast end up here. Cromwell becomes Lord Protector. Washington becomes president, and it is fairly unique that Washington gives up power and a stable democracy is established. Napoleon becomes Emperor of France. Toussaint becomes undisputed leader of Haiti. Bolivar becomes a dictator across South America. Lenin and then Stalin establish a dictatorship in Russia. None of them set out to become a dictator, but they ended up here.
They're neither the most radical radical nor the most moderate moderate. The window has shifted over the course of the revolution, but it ends with a powerful leader in command of something different than what came before--even if a powerful central figure ruling over the government is the same political structure as before. Changes to the social fabric have taken place.
Conclusion
The revolution is now over. We've completed the whole cycle of the revolution. Next week, we'll move on to new topics.
Subscribers can read on to see me apply these final stages of revolution to my own homebrew world, to see this applied in practice to a fantasy realm. You can subscribe weekly, to get every post as it comes out; or monthly, getting a roundup newsletter that also has recommendations and shoutouts to other TTRPG creators. And it is all free! Subscribe now to keep reading!